The seizure of oil resources in Venezuela by the U.S. signals a broader shift towards a ‘smash-and-grab’ diplomacy in a world of resource scarcity.
This growing scarcity of energy, metals, food and water is likely to accelerate similar behaviour by other states, not just the US.
Oil prices have rebounded sharply on geopolitical risk, despite no meaningful supply losses, with Brent trading in the range of $63.85/b to $65.50/b during the past two weeks.
The U.S. President is pushing for cheap energy. Donald Trump said he wants to see WTI down from the recent $57-61 range to $53 a barrel, a level not seen since February 2022. But this has clashed with oil market realities, as low prices pressure US producers and discourage investment.
Surging oil output from the Americas is already straining OPEC’s market control.
A US-led recovery of Venezuela’s vast reserves could further weaken OPEC’s influence, shifting long-term supply power toward Washington and keeping oil prices lower for longer.
Global oil trading houses have emerged as early winners in the race to control Venezuelan crude flows, potentially securing lucrative business in a country with the world’s largest reserves.
OPEC+ opted for caution as the US takeover of Venezuelan oil added supply risks. It has kept oil output unchanged as global oversupply risks collide with Venezuela risks and plans for US companies to run the country’s oil assets.
Oil demand was up at the end of 2025 driven by higher demand in China, the US, Indonesia and Canada.
In 2025, Middle Eastern national oil companies (NOCs) reinforced their role as the world’s energy stabilisers, deploying $100 bln-plus in upstream spending to expand spare capacity, grow gas, and cut carbon intensity. Disciplined investment and portfolio engineering now shape global supply economics.
With the oil market awakening to the risk of Iran, it is important to remember that it pumps a lot more oil than many think. Despite sanctions, its output is close to 5 mln bpd when counting the crude, condensates and the natural gas liquids.
Iran protests have put supply risk back on the oil radar, sending the crude price back up. But with Trump toning down his comments on Iran and possible US intervention, Brent has now come down to $63.75-64.75/b.
Oil’s fear premium has gone. With growth led by the US, Brazil and Guyana, Brent may struggle near the $60/b level in 2026. The real constraint is firm power, as grid capacity tightens and natural gas and nuclear energy regain strategic importance.
Despite Venezuela, Iran and Russian tanker strikes and other conflicts and problems, the main issue is that there is too much oil and LNG supply. That remains the problem in 2026, as oil markets have grown numb to geopolitics.
Chevron and Quantum Capital Group are lining up a bid for $22 bln worth of Lukoil assets. For both, this is a more lucrative investment than Venezuela.
Globally, national oil companies are now setting the pace. Backed by states, NOCs are outspending majors, locking in gas, LNG, chemicals and long-life supply, while international oil companies (IOCs) remain cautious. Future capacity, control, and cash flow will be increasingly state-driven.
The US energy secretary said Washington will take over the sale of Venezuelan crude, with funds deposited in a US-controlled account to benefit the Venezuelan people, but details are as yet unclear.
The debate over the U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro has shifted toward Venezuela’s oil outlook. While it has vast reserves, production growth hinges on heavy investment and unwinding sanctions.
The world is entering a new era of resource imperialism. Trump’s military actions in Venezuela show how U.S. foreign policy has become geared towards securing access to energy and critical minerals.
In 2026 the world is dealing with a president who is asserting America’s right to act internationally as it sees fit, not just within the western hemisphere, but wherever it can get away with it. Trump has become unbound: unconstrained at home, adventurist abroad.
The US oil boom, along with a global crude glut and low pump prices, are bolstering Trump’s foreign policy ambitions. He can do it with much less risk in spiking pump prices at home.
President Trump hopes to attract more than $100 bln of investment to rebuild Venezuela’s shattered oil industry. But Big Oil is cautious, concerned about stability and the investment costs.
This was confirmed by API that warned that reviving Venezuela’s oil industry will be a long, multi-billion-dollar effort, not a quick win. Small gains of about 100,000-200,000 bpd are possible, but restoring peak output from the recent level of 800,000 bpd would require legal certainty, security from expropriation, and massive infrastructure.
Rystad Energy estimates that Venezuela could reach 3 mln bpd production only by around 2040 with a $183 bln investment total between 2026-2040. Only 300,000-350,000 bpd can b
This growing scarcity of energy, metals, food and water is likely to accelerate similar behaviour by other states, not just the US.
Oil prices have rebounded sharply on geopolitical risk, despite no meaningful supply losses, with Brent trading in the range of $63.85/b to $65.50/b during the past two weeks.
The U.S. President is pushing for cheap energy. Donald Trump said he wants to see WTI down from the recent $57-61 range to $53 a barrel, a level not seen since February 2022. But this has clashed with oil market realities, as low prices pressure US producers and discourage investment.
Surging oil output from the Americas is already straining OPEC’s market control.
A US-led recovery of Venezuela’s vast reserves could further weaken OPEC’s influence, shifting long-term supply power toward Washington and keeping oil prices lower for longer.
Global oil trading houses have emerged as early winners in the race to control Venezuelan crude flows, potentially securing lucrative business in a country with the world’s largest reserves.
OPEC+ opted for caution as the US takeover of Venezuelan oil added supply risks. It has kept oil output unchanged as global oversupply risks collide with Venezuela risks and plans for US companies to run the country’s oil assets.
Oil demand was up at the end of 2025 driven by higher demand in China, the US, Indonesia and Canada.
In 2025, Middle Eastern national oil companies (NOCs) reinforced their role as the world’s energy stabilisers, deploying $100 bln-plus in upstream spending to expand spare capacity, grow gas, and cut carbon intensity. Disciplined investment and portfolio engineering now shape global supply economics.
With the oil market awakening to the risk of Iran, it is important to remember that it pumps a lot more oil than many think. Despite sanctions, its output is close to 5 mln bpd when counting the crude, condensates and the natural gas liquids.
Iran protests have put supply risk back on the oil radar, sending the crude price back up. But with Trump toning down his comments on Iran and possible US intervention, Brent has now come down to $63.75-64.75/b.
Oil’s fear premium has gone. With growth led by the US, Brazil and Guyana, Brent may struggle near the $60/b level in 2026. The real constraint is firm power, as grid capacity tightens and natural gas and nuclear energy regain strategic importance.
Despite Venezuela, Iran and Russian tanker strikes and other conflicts and problems, the main issue is that there is too much oil and LNG supply. That remains the problem in 2026, as oil markets have grown numb to geopolitics.
Chevron and Quantum Capital Group are lining up a bid for $22 bln worth of Lukoil assets. For both, this is a more lucrative investment than Venezuela.
Globally, national oil companies are now setting the pace. Backed by states, NOCs are outspending majors, locking in gas, LNG, chemicals and long-life supply, while international oil companies (IOCs) remain cautious. Future capacity, control, and cash flow will be increasingly state-driven.
The US energy secretary said Washington will take over the sale of Venezuelan crude, with funds deposited in a US-controlled account to benefit the Venezuelan people, but details are as yet unclear.
The debate over the U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro has shifted toward Venezuela’s oil outlook. While it has vast reserves, production growth hinges on heavy investment and unwinding sanctions.
The world is entering a new era of resource imperialism. Trump’s military actions in Venezuela show how U.S. foreign policy has become geared towards securing access to energy and critical minerals.
In 2026 the world is dealing with a president who is asserting America’s right to act internationally as it sees fit, not just within the western hemisphere, but wherever it can get away with it. Trump has become unbound: unconstrained at home, adventurist abroad.
The US oil boom, along with a global crude glut and low pump prices, are bolstering Trump’s foreign policy ambitions. He can do it with much less risk in spiking pump prices at home.
President Trump hopes to attract more than $100 bln of investment to rebuild Venezuela’s shattered oil industry. But Big Oil is cautious, concerned about stability and the investment costs.
This was confirmed by API that warned that reviving Venezuela’s oil industry will be a long, multi-billion-dollar effort, not a quick win. Small gains of about 100,000-200,000 bpd are possible, but restoring peak output from the recent level of 800,000 bpd would require legal certainty, security from expropriation, and massive infrastructure.
Rystad Energy estimates that Venezuela could reach 3 mln bpd production only by around 2040 with a $183 bln investment total between 2026-2040. Only 300,000-350,000 bpd can b